8
analytical
digest
russian
russian analytical digest 20/07
During the fi nal days of the Soviet Union, Yeltsin’s
allies began to speak in support of a proposal to cede,
or to sell, the islands to Japan at the cost of US $20–
50 billion. During his visit to Japan in 1990, Yeltsin
proposed a “fi ve-staged program for settling territorial
claims”. e plan consisted of:
1) offi cially recognizing the “Kuril problem”,
2) demilitarizing the islands,
3) declaring the territory a zone of free enterprise,
4) signing a peace treaty and establishing “unifi ed
management” over the islands, and
5) a complete overview of the Kuril issue by a future
generation of politicians.
During his presidency, Yeltsin never removed his
fi ve-point plan from the governmental agenda, but, at
the same time, he never made it public at the offi cial
level. Nevertheless, this plan might have been, and
still may be, a “secret” foundation for the Kremlin’s
policy toward the Kurils. Besides, these islands were
never mentioned as a part of Russian territory, which
was seen by many Russian specialists as absolutely in-
admissible in such documents.
e Yeltsin-era Tokyo and Moscow Declarations
both recognize the claim of Japan to the four islands.
e Joint Soviet-Japanese Declaration of 1956, to
which Tokyo regularly refers as the basis for its bi-
lateral relationship, talks about a probable transfer of
Habomai and Shikotan, the two smaller islands, and
does not mention the larger islands of Kunashiri and
Iturup. is transfer would take place only after the
signing of a peace treaty.
Unlike similar documents of the past, neither the
Tokyo nor Moscow Declarations have been ratifi ed as
intergovernmental agreements by the Russian parlia-
ment. Some have speculated that Yeltsin’s administra-
tion did not submit these documents for ratifi cation
because it was aware of their disadvantageous content
for Russia, leading to their ultimate rejection by the
legislators.
Even though Yeltsin’s fi ve-stage plan was never
offi cially approved, key components of it have been
implemented. us, the fi rst stage, recognition of the
problem, was accomplished quickly and without any
serious problems in 1994–1996.
e second stage, demilitarization of the islands,
was implemented with no less success. As a result, there
are only frontier posts and small naval units based on
the Kurils at present. However, Russians claim that
the Japanese armed forces in Hokkaido have increased
in number and strengthened their combat capabilities
due to additional state-of-the-art armament.
Japan interpreted the Russian military drawdown
in the 1990s as a sign of Russia’s weakness and exerted
unprecedented pressure on this part of Russia’s terri-
tory by authorizing Japanese fi shing boats to operate
in Russia’s 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone around
the southern Kurils. As a result, the number of fi shing
violations grew to ten thousand. Under these circum-
stances, the then-commander of the Federal Frontier
Troops General A. Nikolayev received permission to
use force to protect Russian waters, including fi ring
at Japanese ships.
e subsequent confrontation threatened Yeltsin’s
entire plan. Prompt diplomatic arrangements were
made and negotiations to allow Japanese boats to fi sh
in Russia’s territorial waters were held between the
two countries.
e third stage, encouraging free enterprise, was
implemented by allowing Japanese citizens to visit the
Kurils without a visa, negotiation of the fi shery agree-
ment in 1998, Japan’s humanitarian aid to inhabitants
of the islands, and an appeal by Russian authorities to
Japanese business circles to invest in the region.
e fourth stage of the plan, signing a peace trea-
ty, has yet to be achieved. In 1999, Yeltsin’s team re-
jected the idea of signing a peace treaty for the fi rst
time, even though this idea had been proclaimed in
the 1993 and 1998 Declarations. is treaty was to
defi ne comprehensive approaches for future Russian-
Japanese cooperation in all areas including “the issue
of a boundary solution”.
Unfortunately, Putin has made no progress in
signing a treaty. His attitude toward Japan’s territorial
claims is clearly expressed in his repeated statements
about the integrity of Russia’s territory and especially
in his statement in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk on September
3, 1999: “Does anyone say that the government plans
to cede the Kurils? We negotiate, we acknowledge the
problem, but transfer of the Kurils is out of the ques-
tion”. With neither side willing to make territorial
concessions, the situation is stalemated.
About the author:
Vlad M. Kaczynski is Associate Professor at the School of Marine Aff airs and Affi liate Associate Professor of the Ellison Center
for Russian, East European and Central Asia Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States. Currently he is a
Visiting Fulbright Professor at the Warsaw School of Economics, Poland.
Further Reading
Viacheslav K. Zilanov and Aleksei Plotnikov, “ e Old Legacy and Ways to Solve It,” Severnaya Patsifi ca, 2002.